Covid-19: Is India entering endemic stage of coronavirus?

Editor1 Sep 22 2021 Current Affairs

Dr Soumya Swaminathan, the World Health Organization's (WHO) chief scientist, said that India seems to be "entering some stage of endemicity".

A disease is described as endemic when it continues to be present within a given geographical area but its impact is manageable.

Her remarks come at a time when India has eased restrictions amid a fall in its Covid-19 caseload.

But experts continue to advise precaution, saying the possibility of a third wave still looms. And given the threat of new variants and India's vast population, a timeline for when India actually reaches the endemic stage remains an open question.

In an interview, Dr Swaminathan said that India - like several other countries - was reaching a stage where there "is low level of transmission", unlike the "exponential growth and peaks that we saw a few months ago".

The endemic stage of any disease is reached when a large section of the population becomes immune to a disease - either through vaccination or through antibodies acquired from a prior infection.

At this state, the spread of the disease starts to slow down, explains epidemiologist Dr Lalit Kant.

Prominent virologist Dr Shahid Jameel said an endemic doesn't mean infection doesn't happen. "It simply means it doesn't cause widespread disease."

Dr Swaminathan suggested that although India would continue to experience "ups and downs" at a regional level, it's unlikely to see another overwhelming surge in infections like it saw during the second wave when patients suffered from acute shortages of hospital beds and medical oxygen.

She added that given India's heterogenous population, there would be localised peaks among people "who were perhaps less affected by the first and second waves, or in areas where there is low vaccine coverage".

However, she said "there is no crystal ball" to predict with certainty "when, where and how bad a third wave will be" and "all one can do is make an educated guess".

 

 

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